Category Archives: Oil Future

Diversity Risk – Case 1 : Nho Klu

I happened to come across Nho recently and he has this to say:

“My family immigrated to Canada in 2003 and was into my second year when I got employed in that EPC company where I eventually reported to John. When John talked, I was all ears. By not being vocal against some of his methods, I thought I was showing my respect and loyalty. Although, I sometimes felt he does not have any idea about the task, I kept my mouth shut. He was my leader and I trusted him to do things correctly. I have never done anything unless I have his blessing. What kind of Leader was he that after giving my best approving-yes-attitude and respect, that was how he repaid me? I do not have any idea.”

The truth is (that is whether you admit it or not) there will be times and occasions that one just cannot seem to get his message across and vice versa. The other party or parties apparently do not appreciate what one is bringing to the table. In the midst of these diversities lie the risks and questions that we all have to answer and manage every day (Frago, R., 2017.Diversity Risk in the Canadian Workplace.LinkedIn Pulse).

Managers tend to see the next person through perception all the time. He sees someone the way others painted the person or what he himself has painted the person to be.

The danger is, what the leader perceived might be farthest from the truth. Continue reading

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Posted in Analysis, Black Swans, Business, Canadian Politics, Causes and effects, Construction Management, Data Assessment, Decision Making, Diversity, Diversity Risk, E-Touch Up, E-Touch Up Products, Economics, Execution Strategy, Information Maturity, Integration, Issues and Problems, Managing Assumptions, Managing Constraints, Monitoring, OFW, Oil Future, Opportunities, Opportunity, Overseas Contract Workers, Overseas Foreign Workers, Pinoy OCWs, Planning and Scheduling, Program Management, Progress Measurement, Project Management, Quality Management, risk, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk Case Study, Risk of Working Overseas, Risk Relativity, Risk Universe, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Threats, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Black Swans

Black swan events are so fascinating that they are a common source of discussion in many risk management forums. The variety of perspectives coming from all directions never ceases to amaze.

To a risk manager, ‘black swan’ phenomena are highly unlikely events that have massive impacts on a business or society on the rare occasions they occur. It means that the event is unexpected, but is of huge consequence (Ferguson, 2014). There is no scientific way at present to predict black swan events reasonably and acceptably.
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Posted in Analysis, Baseline Management, Black Swans, Business, Canadian Politics, Causes and effects, Construction Management, Critical Path, Critical Path Management, Data Assessment, Data Maturity, Decision Making, Deterministic Schedule, E-Touch Up, Economics, Information Maturity, Integrated Schedule, Integration, Issues and Problems, Managing Assumptions, Managing Constraints, Monitoring, Oil Future, Opportunities, Opportunity, Planning and Scheduling, Program Management, Program Schedule, Progress Measurement, Project Management, Reporting, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk Relativity, Risk Universe, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Threats, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Risky Future of Oil

In risk-based management, one tries to anticipate the risk. The risk is either a threat or an opportunity. The issues of today are the risks of the past. The risks of the future are driven by the issues and problems of today. How the issues are addressed today will decide what happen in the future. These are fundamentals of risk and risk-based management. The risky future of oil points to the events that threaten it and the opportunities that come close behind ( Frago, R., 2015.Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and Opportunities: A Project Controls Perspective).

No one expert knows exactly how much oil out there exceeds the global volumetric demand but all seem to agree that the entire world is drowning in it. The Gulf countries, foremost Saudi Arabia are reportedly pumping at almost maximum capacity without blinking an eye.

There are now more than three billion barrels of excess supply in world oil markets, according to the International Energy Agency last November 2015. It its latest monthly report, the IEA said this “massive cushion” of excess supply has grown as oil prices have fallen to a new normal of around $50 billion barrels a day (The Telegraph, 2015). We can all extrapolate what is the current figure as of today and we won’t be dead wrong.

With Iran back on play, it won’t be long before the Iranians fully open their discharge valve occupying whatever space is left to take. This Saudis are doing all they can to protect and even grow market shares. The object is to prevent arch rival Iran from surging back with vengeance. It means that whatever good things the last twelve months retreat shelving drilling, exploration, and billions worth of projects, truth of the matter is, it might not be enough. Continue reading

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Oil Price, Recession: Causes, Issues and Risks

As one of many whose bread and butter is in the oil and gas industry, the price of oil further plunging to around $41.35 dollars a barrel conjures a worrisome landscape. Today’s decline (August 14, 2015) is almost a full … Continue reading

Posted in Business, Causes and effects, Economics, Issues and Problems, Oil Future, Oil Marketing, Project Management, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk-based Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment