Category Archives: Integrated Schedule
Planning, Scheduling, and Safety
There are 150,000 collisions, 350 traffic deaths, and 20,000 injuries every year in Alberta, Canada (AMA, 2011).
You might be living somewhere in another place or country and you have different numbers. Your statistics might be worse or better.
The thing is, behind this statistics are faces of families and friends, the communities, and workplaces. They are all negatively affected and there is an urgent need to understand and do something.
If one thinks about it long enough, he will realize that the solution to this harmful and deadly consequence is risk-based management. Continue reading
Black Swans
Black swan events are so fascinating that they are a common source of discussion in many risk management forums. The variety of perspectives coming from all directions never ceases to amaze.
To a risk manager, ‘black swan’ phenomena are highly unlikely events that have massive impacts on a business or society on the rare occasions they occur. It means that the event is unexpected, but is of huge consequence (Ferguson, 2014). There is no scientific way at present to predict black swan events reasonably and acceptably.
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Risk Relativity
A person’s perspective depends on which side of the fence they are sitting on. With that in mind, a risk can be a threat or an opportunity. Your business sees a threat and your competitor sees an opportunity. It is as simple as that.
Each individual player within the risk universe will see things a bit differently compared to the next person, with some people interpreting things in exactly the opposite fashion. In each case, the person can see only one attribute.
The simplistic objective point of view is that risk is either a threat or an opportunity, depending on the observer’s orientation to the goal. Continue reading
Risk-based Planning and Scheduling Slides (SAIT Presentation)
101116 Risk-based Planning & Scheduling (My SAIT Slides) from RUFRAN FRAGO, P. Eng., PMP®, CCP, RMP®, Author
Egad! It is the Most Likely Schedule!
One has to remember that a schedule is a time estimate. It is not the exact actual time value at the time. Experienced professionals try to provide a plausible estimate. Nobody really knows what would be the definitive value.
ML date (or most likely duration) is not the same as expected date (or expected duration). It is but a component of the expected value. With the three point estimates (Triangular or Beta) available, one can calculate the expected duration of an activity, a group of activity, and the whole project’s duration.
It is one of the questions asked more often in risk-based planning and scheduling. Project directors, managers, planners, and schedulers have to know what this term means.
Each time a scheduler tries to explain the concept, he easily gets lost in his own circumlocution. It might be his indirectness compounded by the fact that this particular term shares common but blurred boundaries with some other project and risk management terms.
In view of such difficulties, let us put their words and thoughts on paper so that project practitioners can better understand. Continue reading
Hold your breath! These are Phantom Schedules!
“Now, the fun begins. It gets even more exciting when two opposing poles get near each other debating project change notices and non-compliance reports. Arguments usually boil down to the definition of a schedule baseline and the right way to manage it. If there is no governing prior agreement, it becomes difficult to reconcile, as the expected answer has to satisfy both clients and contractors (or whichever party is involved). The perennial argument revolving around schedule baseline management is probably as old as when the term was first coined. It is sad to detect that many, especially project managers just kept on missing the points of control (Frago, R., 2016.Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 1).”
Warning: A phantom schedule can work against its proponents in the end if sponsors are not careful.
Ghost schedule removes time management focus from the officially approved contractual schedule. Complications start when this happen.
Client cannot effectively use the phantom schedule in officially discussing path forward with the contractor. It is not an acceptable driver to get the contractor going another way. After all, this schedule does not exist. Continue reading
Project Schedule Baseline Top Ten Prerequisites
Baseline prerequisites:
1. The baseline schedule shall represent the most likely schedule
The baseline schedule is the most-likely schedule. It does not have built-in float, buffer duration, or/and dummy activities. It is neither optimistic nor pessimistic (tight or lax).
Reminder:
It has full complement of qualified resources, with no embedded risk or any built-in schedule contingency.
2. An official project BL Schedule shall be a result of Interactive Planning
All baselines set from Gate 2 onward shall be the result of an interactive planning session.
3. Schedule scope shall equal plan scope
The plan scope shall be the same scope reflected in the baseline schedule that follows. Planned scope and the scheduled scope must be in alignment. A schedule cannot have more than the scope in the plan. Otherwise, the project faces a problem (Frago, Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 1, 2015).
Read the whole article for complete list! Continue reading
Ten Cardinal Rules to Good Schedule BL Management
When client and contractor start throwing accusations against each other surrounding schedule baseline, one can easily conclude that a problem or issue is brewing. It can turn into big risks (Frago, Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 1, 2015). Resolving the contentions between opposing parties can take long and potentially, can end in disaster.
To prevent such occurrence, the project must start with the right foot forward. The project manager, all his planners, and schedulers, including his contract administrators must have a solid understanding on how the project intends to manage schedule baselines.
If baseline management is not part of the plan, the project is trekking on dangerous territory. Continue reading
Effects of Constraints to Critical Path
Identifying and validating project constraints affecting the schedule is an important part of monitoring and control. Constraints for the most part are project assumptions.
Treat them with caution and respect.
“Once started, the project is actually operating under three big traditional major constraints* of cost, time, and scope (*note that PMBOK had recently came up with six constraints).
Constraints imposed on activities are multiple limitations that will most likely further make it challenging and difficult to manage time.”
The critical path ultimately dictates the duration of the project. For this reason, a planning and scheduling person has to understand how constraints affect the schedule.
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Setting the Critical Path
In the big situation, a man’s blind belief usually ends in disaster. Continue reading
