Category Archives: Threats

Risk-based Planning and Scheduling Slides (SAIT Presentation)

101116 Risk-based Planning & Scheduling (My SAIT Slides) from RUFRAN FRAGO, P. Eng., PMP®, CCP, RMP®, Author

Posted in Analysis, Baseline Management, Business, Causes and effects, Construction Management, Critical Path, Critical Path Management, Data Assessment, Data Maturity, Decision Making, Deterministic Schedule, E-Touch Up, E-Touch Up Products, Information Maturity, Integrated Schedule, Integration, Issues and Problems, Managing Constraints, Opportunities, Planning and Scheduling, Primavera Administration, Program Management, Program Schedule, Progress Measurement, Project Management, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Schedule Baseline, Threats | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Risky Decision: Choosing Daycare

It is always better to learn from the experience of others than to experience the pain yourself. Forewarned is forearmed.

As a Risk-based Management practitioner, what more, a grandfather, I would like to remind all Moms and Dads to be acutely aware of all risk indicators before letting others take care of their precious ones. Be cognizant of warning signs that threatens the safety of your child.

Do not focus too much on your own personal objectives, your targets, or your timelines to accomplish something.

Never equate the risk (threat) to the convenience and freedom daycare brings to your life.

Do not rush into making any decision affecting your child. Think deeply and re-think your priority list!

Best Time in Life

The best time in life is being a Mom and a Dad to your kids in their formative years. Nothing beats that.

It is the best thing in the world. It is way beyond work/job, career development, MBA, Doctorate, Diploma, Certificate, and other accolades. Family is first.
Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Business, Causes and effects, Childcare, Data Assessment, Day Home, Daycare, Decision Making, Issues and Problems, Managing Assumptions, Monitoring, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk Universe, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Threats, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Hold your breath! These are Phantom Schedules!

“Now, the fun begins. It gets even more exciting when two opposing poles get near each other debating project change notices and non-compliance reports. Arguments usually boil down to the definition of a schedule baseline and the right way to manage it. If there is no governing prior agreement, it becomes difficult to reconcile, as the expected answer has to satisfy both clients and contractors (or whichever party is involved). The perennial argument revolving around schedule baseline management is probably as old as when the term was first coined. It is sad to detect that many, especially project managers just kept on missing the points of control (Frago, R., 2016.Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 1).”

Warning: A phantom schedule can work against its proponents in the end if sponsors are not careful.

Ghost schedule removes time management focus from the officially approved contractual schedule. Complications start when this happen.

Client cannot effectively use the phantom schedule in officially discussing path forward with the contractor. It is not an acceptable driver to get the contractor going another way. After all, this schedule does not exist. Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Baseline Management, Business, Causes and effects, Construction Management, Decision Making, Execution Strategy, Integrated Schedule, Integration, Issues and Problems, Monitoring, Opportunities, P6 Issues, Planning and Scheduling, Progress Measurement, Project Management, Quality Management, Reporting, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk Universe, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Schedule Baseline, Threats, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Man is the Center of the Risk Universe

Doing nothing is also a decision. It is a decision that sits on your head. “Status quo” is also a decision. No escaping around it! Continue reading

Posted in Business, Causes and effects, Construction Management, Data Assessment, Decision Making, Issues and Problems, Opportunities, Planning and Scheduling, Program Management, Project Management, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk Universe, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Threats, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Project Schedule Baseline Top Ten Prerequisites

Baseline prerequisites:
1. The baseline schedule shall represent the most likely schedule

The baseline schedule is the most-likely schedule. It does not have built-in float, buffer duration, or/and dummy activities. It is neither optimistic nor pessimistic (tight or lax).

Reminder:

It has full complement of qualified resources, with no embedded risk or any built-in schedule contingency.

2. An official project BL Schedule shall be a result of Interactive Planning

All baselines set from Gate 2 onward shall be the result of an interactive planning session.

3. Schedule scope shall equal plan scope

The plan scope shall be the same scope reflected in the baseline schedule that follows. Planned scope and the scheduled scope must be in alignment. A schedule cannot have more than the scope in the plan. Otherwise, the project faces a problem (Frago, Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 1, 2015).

Read the whole article for complete list! Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Baseline Management, Business, Causes and effects, Construction Management, Data Assessment, Data Maturity, earned value, Execution Strategy, Information Maturity, Integrated Schedule, Integration, Issues and Problems, Managing Assumptions, Planning and Scheduling, Primavera Administration, Program Management, Program Schedule, Progress Measurement, Project Management, Quality Management, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Schedule Baseline, Threats, Tools, Type of Analysis, Uncategorized, Variance Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Ten Cardinal Rules to Good Schedule BL Management

When client and contractor start throwing accusations against each other surrounding schedule baseline, one can easily conclude that a problem or issue is brewing. It can turn into big risks (Frago, Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 1, 2015). Resolving the contentions between opposing parties can take long and potentially, can end in disaster.

To prevent such occurrence, the project must start with the right foot forward. The project manager, all his planners, and schedulers, including his contract administrators must have a solid understanding on how the project intends to manage schedule baselines.

If baseline management is not part of the plan, the project is trekking on dangerous territory. Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Baseline Management, Business, Causes and effects, Construction Management, Integrated Schedule, Issues and Problems, Planning and Scheduling, Primavera Administration, Program Management, Program Schedule, Progress Measurement, Project Management, Risk Assessment and Treatment, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Schedule Baseline, Threats, Uncategorized, Variance Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Schedule Critical Path

Pencil pushers and computer jockeys are people who do not know what is going on around them, but moved only by the task to transfer listed data into the system.

Does this mean that the term critical path is but a salesperson word? Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Business, Causes and effects, Critical Path, Critical Path Management, Data Assessment, Execution Strategy, Integrated Schedule, Integration, Issues and Problems, Longest Path, P6 Issues, Planning and Scheduling, Primavera Administration, Program Schedule, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Threats, Type of Analysis, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Risky Future of Oil

In risk-based management, one tries to anticipate the risk. The risk is either a threat or an opportunity. The issues of today are the risks of the past. The risks of the future are driven by the issues and problems of today. How the issues are addressed today will decide what happen in the future. These are fundamentals of risk and risk-based management. The risky future of oil points to the events that threaten it and the opportunities that come close behind ( Frago, R., 2015.Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and Opportunities: A Project Controls Perspective).

No one expert knows exactly how much oil out there exceeds the global volumetric demand but all seem to agree that the entire world is drowning in it. The Gulf countries, foremost Saudi Arabia are reportedly pumping at almost maximum capacity without blinking an eye.

There are now more than three billion barrels of excess supply in world oil markets, according to the International Energy Agency last November 2015. It its latest monthly report, the IEA said this “massive cushion” of excess supply has grown as oil prices have fallen to a new normal of around $50 billion barrels a day (The Telegraph, 2015). We can all extrapolate what is the current figure as of today and we won’t be dead wrong.

With Iran back on play, it won’t be long before the Iranians fully open their discharge valve occupying whatever space is left to take. This Saudis are doing all they can to protect and even grow market shares. The object is to prevent arch rival Iran from surging back with vengeance. It means that whatever good things the last twelve months retreat shelving drilling, exploration, and billions worth of projects, truth of the matter is, it might not be enough. Continue reading

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RISK? What are you?

I have always wanted to write about risk-based management principles in a poetic form. The uncanny characteristic of a poem to send the intended message with amazing clarity catches our senses so that we suddenly become more receptive. We listen more and even unconsciously let down our guard. Our biases disappear to consider the intended message.

People have to manage daily the risk of sin, e.g. of temptation, of jealousy, gluttony, revenge, and greed. One needs to control his vice, his expenses, his career, and many others.

It is in front of all of us and in the very fabric of our daily life. Risk management is the only thing we do for a living.

Today, I am happy to share with you an original 18-stanza rhyme poem of (8-6-8-6 metric) I have been working on in the past three days mostly while standing on the Calgary train, going to work.

This intriguing concept drives the reason why we go to work every day. We all have one main, central purpose yet we all go about it almost unconsciously. We are still employed by companies we worked in to manage risk. Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Integration, Issues and Problems, Poem, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Threats | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Risk-based Management: Data Maturity, Integration, Risk and Execution

The overall execution plan loses substance when important pieces are missing. It can also lose its essence when many smaller project elements are absent, through their cumulative effect.

Data maturity is a project attribute project managers have to deal with in some intelligent way. They seek to formulate a way to address missing and incomplete information and to strike a balance somehow. It is very risky trying to integrate a project with missing or incomplete work scope. Filling in an information space with assumed fill-in data is a risky trade-off.

Quality is frequently a victim of time. Think about it. Try doing anything quicker than normal. What will happen to the quality of any endeavor compared to one given enough time? Right you are! We will see resources skipping steps, doing shortcuts, circumventing rules, violating regulations, lying, cheating, sugarcoating, and many others. The adverse consequences, to name a few includes reworks, higher safety incidents, project suspension, strikes, disputes, litigation, lay-offs, and bunches of other bad news. All these will potentially happen because quality has deteriorated. Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Business, Construction Management, Data Assessment, Data Maturity, Economics, Execution Strategy, Information Maturity, Integration, Planning and Scheduling, Project Management, Quality Management, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Threats | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment