Diversity Risk Case 2 : Puro Mali

Puro Mali (not his real name) was one of the company’s project reviewer and auditor. He had just completed his review and gave the project two high findings.

  • Not submitting the required project documents on time and,
  • Submitting a project schedule below the approved minimum quality standard

Within the day, Puro received an e-mail from the Project Manager Don Notagree (not his real name), with copies to all the department’s bigwigs stating the following:

“I do not agree with the position you have taken. High findings are unjust as it assumes that the project team had blatantly ignored the fact that we are required to prepare the requested information. Also, to assume that the team did not generate or have more current information is rather short sighted. At a minimum the initial findings should be “TBD” while your review continues.”

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Diversity Risk Case 2, Original Drawing by Rufran C. Frago, Copyright 2017

 

Puro was very unhappy with the e-mail. He felt slighted by the personal, strong, and accusatory tone of the message. He made it a point to reply promptly copying the same bigwigs the Manager chose to involve.

“The deadline for the submission of findings had passed. Your group submitted nothing and in doing so, the project got a high finding. I am not trying to insinuate that you and your team are irresponsible. Please do not make it personal by attacking me like this. We can always talk between ourselves before you issuing a broadcasted e-mail. The High rating is in accordance to the Review Guidelines. There was nothing shortsighted about it. I hope that this brings you some understanding. If you like, we can meet face to face, have a cup of coffee, and resolve this disagreement on neutral grounds.”

In spite of Puro’s apparent cool-headed approach, a cold war had started. Another work relationship was strained and upper management did not even know about it.

He also discovered during a follow-up meeting, that the words and phrases he used in the same report had elicited some really negative reactions from Don and the two members of his team. They complained that the wordings were too harsh.

Puro was not expecting that kind of feedback. In his view, the words and phrases that he used were all perfectly normal. Why did they see it that way?

“It cannot be this way,” he thought.

He has a Master in Business Communication in his country of origin. The intention of the review process is to identify room for improvement, and bridge the gap to help the project. It was not his purpose to create the gap.

In Puro’s contemplation,

“*#!%… there’s something wrong with this people. Why are they extremely sensitive?”

For the reader’s benefit, I captured some of the words and phrases that Puro used. They are listed below.

  • “The quality of the project schedule is questionable. It was below the minimum standard of quality.”
  • “The project should follow the governing procedure and must see to it that…”
  • “…schedule resource loading was incorrect.”
  • “There were mistakes in … “

Groping for answer and seeking a peaceful co-existence, Puro unhappily agreed to change his wordings resulting in the following:

  • “The quality of the project schedule could be improved as it is below the minimum standard of quality.”
  • “The project is requested to review the governing procedure and to check …”
  • “…schedule resource loading did not match the baseline estimate.”
  • “There were some misalignments in … “

Whether a person is the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the company, the janitor or cleaner under contract, or a jobless person on the street, I am sure he wants some respect.

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Project Y, Original Drawing by Rufran C. Frago (Copyright 2004)

 

An intelligent person wants to be heard and a chance to be understood and validated. The American writer Max Ehrmann (1872–1945) Desiderata, which he wrote in 1927 underlined this principle in the first few lines of the famous prose poem.

 

“Go placidly amid the noise and haste, and remember what peace there may be in silence.

As far as possible without surrender, be on good terms with all persons.

Speak your truth quietly and clearly; and listen to others, even the dull, and the ignorant; they too have their story.

Avoid loud and aggressive persons. They are vexations to the spirit.”

“If you compare yourself with others, you may become vain and bitter; for always there will be greater and lesser persons than yourself.”

I, for one, find the ideals of yesteryear more and more unsuitable to our current complex society. As such, it is imperative that organizations train and prepare all their employees not only to manage others, but also to manage themselves in a culturally diversified workplace. We all have to open our eyes wider, as it is crystal-clear that mismanaging cultural differences will adversely affect even a strong, skillful, and qualified workforce.

If we review Diversity Risk Case 1 : Nho Klu and this case, we will notice a glaring mismatch in the communication style of the characters. The most basic natural behavior that each one of them brought to the work environment reflected their styles. The mismatch of styles created a silent conflict that grew and became unmanageable.

The idea of hierarchical culture is tied closely to the power distance dimension (PDI) forwarded by Geert Hofstede. A visit to the Mind Tools website in 2012 provides the reader a starting plain look at what Hofstede calls the “Five Dimensions of National Culture”.

A revisit to the same website recently (2017) has added two more dimensions to the group. Suffice it to say, these general dimensional attributes are good tools in managing and distinguishing one culture from another. It is now generally described as “Seven Dimensions of Culture.”

“The cultural dimensions represent independent preferences for one state of affairs over another that distinguishes countries (rather than individuals) from each other. The country scores on the dimensions are relative, as we are all human and simultaneously we are all unique. In other words, culture can be only used meaningfully by comparison ( Mindtools, 2017.Hofstede Cultural Dimensions).”

It goes to show that the key to better understanding depends equally on all involved. Nho, John, Puro, Don, managers, and colleagues should have had open minds to avoid quickly succumbing to personal perceptions based solely on their own cultural lenses.

The challenges brought about by cultural differences like nationality, region, education, language, family values, political and professional affiliation, exposures, training, expectations, communication styles, philosophies, roles, positions, responsibility, unspoken languages, and many other potential differences produce the common office interactions and relationships we are seeing today in the workplace.

It is very interesting how new Canadians (newcomers to Canada) cope at work compared to their Canadian-trained counterparts in various settings.

In that aspect, communication being a two-way street, we can conclude that it will affect Canadian trained professionals to the same extent. The degree of understanding can improve only if one takes enough time to look through each other’s lenses. Seeing another person’s perspective with an open mind will influence the success and failures of any endeavor.

Source: Frago, R. (2015). Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and Opportunities: A Project Controls Perspective. ISBN 978-0-9947608-0-7 (Canada). Chapter 8.Section 8.4-8.5.page 162-166

Rufran C. Frago – Author (25-Jan-17)

Related sites:

Related articles authored by Rufran Frago.

  1. Diversity Risk-Case 1: Nho Klu
  2. Diversity Risk in the Canadian Workplace
  3. Risk Relativity
  4. Man is the Center of the Risk Universe
  5. Your World, Our Risk Universe
  6. Rufran Frago in the Global Risk Community Site
  7. Risks as a Function of Time
  8. Changing the Culture of Your Organization
  9. A Person Perceives Others Based on His Own Interest
  10. How Can Management Motivate and Empower?
  11. How Can Managers Increase Leadership Effectiveness
  12. Risks Surrounding Canada’s TFW Part 2
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Season’s Message from RBMS Inc.

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Merry Christmas to all!

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Planning, Scheduling, and Safety

All of us have seen the aftermath of those who defied the traffic sign “Drive slowly! Do not exceed the speed limits” or “Slow down, dangerous curve.”

As you drive on the highway, you begin to recognize that many drivers just ignore the speed limit and drive 10, 20, or sometimes 30 kilometers per hour over the limit.

Everyone knows that speed kills, and seeing someone traveling above the limit makes us question how any intelligent person can commit such a reckless act. It is one of the number one ways to cause or get into a car accident.

Let’s quickly go to statistics.

There are 150,000 collisions, 350 traffic deaths, and 20,000 injuries every year in Alberta, Canada (AMA, 2011).

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You might be living somewhere in another place or country and you have different numbers. Your statistics might be worse or better.

The thing is, behind this statistics are faces of families and friends, the communities, and workplaces. They are all negatively affected and there is an urgent need to understand and do something.

If one thinks about it long enough, he will realize that the solution to this harmful and deadly consequence is risk-based management.

What do you think is the root cause of speeding? Why are people taking to the road and speeding? Are they chasing something, someone? Why are they talking on their mobile phone and texting? Why can’t they wait? Why can’t they make the call before boarding their vehicles? What is too important to parents as to jeopardize the life of their precious passengers by speeding, and talking, and texting? I have asked these questions many times and came up with an explanation as to the logical why, and that is without even receiving a good and formal reply from anyone.

It just simply crossed my mind.  Poor planning and scheduling or their absence, is the root of many accidents, and human-made disasters.

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Planning and scheduling are like husband and wife. The syllogism offers a good analogy because it is based on an ideal and fundamental point of view of mutual interdependency. We plan to schedule. We schedule to plan. It is a deep-rooted tie that cannot be ignored (Frago, R., 2015.Plan and Schedule: Planner and Scheduler: What is your story?.LinkedIn Pulse article).

Anyway, while teaching project teams the subject of planning and scheduling in an in-house course, the answers came flowing and they made my jaw fell. Here are some of the reasons why people are speeding. These are just a few.

1)    People are running late

  • So they push the pedal to the metal 
  • So they make shortcut 
  • So they jump the queue
  • So they call while driving to cancel an appointment
  • So they call while driving to say they’ll be late
  • So they don’t know what to do except speed up
  • And many others (think about it…)

2)    People are impatient to drive behind another vehicle

  • So they overtake the vehicle impulsively
  • So they honk, yell, and swear
  • So they don’t observe safe distance
  • So they try to annoy the other driver by bad gestures
  • So they put their headlight to high beam
  • So they get distracted
  •  And many more (you can easily think of some other reasons)

3)    People are tired or impaired

  • So they try to be there before they fall asleep
  • So they can be there to rest before the next appointment
  • So they commit driving miscalculation
  • And some others (think about it)

The purpose of bringing the reader’s attention to this seemingly ordinary day-to-day issue on speeding is because they are all preventable. They are preventable through good understanding of planning and scheduling.

A person who has an interview the next morning will plan his activities including contingencies. He will schedule and execute them firmly surely.

He will set his wake-up alarm clock to 5:30 AM if his interview is 9:00 AM not 8:00 AM, knowing that it is 50 kilometers away through traffic zones.

Any thinking man will consider congestions, some what-if accident situations, and build his buffer zone from there. These are all to make sure he can still be there on time no matter what he encounters.

By doing this, he minimizes stress. He avoids speeding, potentially saving lives and properties. He will not be a slave to his emotion when road activities go against him. He knows how to overtake a vehicle safely in wet, dry, or icy road because he has a plan. He has alternate routes in case of bottlenecks, guided by a good sense of direction and logic.

Risk-based management describes the available choices and options considered against their associated risks. Actions become possible when we are sure that we adequately comprehend the risks before us. Looking at how other types of management work makes the risk-based concept ideal, since it is a simple perspective that can easily integrate other concepts.

Decisions evolve from a situation where one has to make a choice.

The option can be to do or not to do something. It can also be to select one option from a range of options. The most important objectives drive final decision. It is constrained by any, or combination of social, technical, business, safety, and environmental factors. Successful decision-making requires an understanding of each of these factors and objectives (RiskTec, 2013).

Risk-based simply means that risk is the main contemplation while keeping an eye to achieving business objectives. It is therefore a foundational concern in the pursuit of a goal.

Planning and scheduling is in the core of risk-based management.

Everything we do in this world is a form of risk-based management.

Source: Frago, R. (2015).Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and Opportunities: A Project Controls Perspective. ISBN 978-0-9947608-0-7 (Canada). Section 3.9

Rufran C. Frago – Author (19-Oct-16)

Related sites:

Related articles authored by Rufran Frago.

  1. Black Swans
  2. Risk Relativity
  3. Phantom Schedules
  4. Man is the Center of the Risk Universe
  5. Project Schedule Baseline Top 10 Prerequisites
  6. Setting Critical Path
  7. Schedule Critical path
  8. Primer to Good Schedule Integration
  9. Project Schedule: P50, Anyone?
  10. Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 1
  11. Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 2
  12. 4D Scheduling Part 1: What is it about?
  13. 4D Scheduling Part 2
  14. 4D Scheduling Part 3
  15. Mega-Projects Schedule Management and Integration
  16. Scaffolding Hours: What are they? Part 1
  17. Scaffolding Hours: What are they? Part 2
  18. Your World, Our Risk Universe
  19. Rufran Frago in the Global Risk Community Site
Posted in Analysis, Black Swans, Causes and effects, Data Assessment, Data Maturity, Issues and Problems, Managing Constraints, Monitoring, Planning and Scheduling, Program Schedule, risk, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk Relativity, Risk Universe, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Threats, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Black Swans

Black swan events are so fascinating that they are a common source of discussion in many risk management forums. The variety of perspectives coming from all directions never ceases to amaze.

To a risk manager, ‘black swan’ phenomena are highly unlikely events that have massive impacts on a business or society on the rare occasions they occur. It means that the event is unexpected, but is of huge consequence (Ferguson, 2014). There is no scientific way at present to predict black swan events reasonably and acceptably.

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I tend to question the result of the research, which suggested that by exploiting many types of data, risk managers can help prevent (or at least contain) the damage related to black swan events and other risky blind spots.

How can any data be useful without the process of correlation? Black swan events cannot be accurately quantified or calculated. They are unknown unknowns.

The interesting part mentioned in one study points to the use of integrated data to point to potential risk. The mere mention of integrated data underlines correlation; i.e. we have to associate correctly one datum to the next, or one set of information to the others, for them to be of value.

That can prove rather impossible when we have nothing to start with. How do we start working on something we do not know? There is an immense number of data points where one can start. Only by scratching the surface of knowledge that knowing starts.

Unknown unknowns (black swans) might be in the room, for all we know, but we just cannot see them until circumstances make them visible.

Once we see that the risk exists, we would surmise that it no longer qualifies as a black swan event, because we are now aware of the risk, and the element of surprise is no longer there. It is now the normal type of risk that you, and many risk managers are already familiar with, the known unknowns.

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Bill Pieroni, Chief Operating Officer at insurance giant Marsh, and a few others, contend that the best way to manage risk, even black swans is to use big data.

He explains that some events occur with more and more regularity, suggesting that some seemingly unknowable events are in fact, becoming more or less predictable. He claims that this big data will give way to shades-of-grey swans.

Perhaps he is talking about the transition from being unknown to more or less known. Although it sounds logical, shades of grey will be a doubtful state, a ghost of something that will not present any solid evidence but introduce vagueness to nothingness. It might only serve as a uncertainty generator.

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In the present age and time, black swan events can only be addressed by intuition.

Despite being labeled as one of the cognitive biases that underlie human flaws in decision-making, I believe that this is a true statement.

We can all agree that if anyone has the right perspective, understanding, and tools to process universal data, and integrate them into some coherent information, prediction of a black swan event is theoretically possible.

The problem in this concept is that nobody has found a way to make it practically possible.

Ergo, contrary to what the author implies, real-world application of Pieroni’s ideas is still impossible.

The risk universe is immense, yet each component, regardless of how small it might be, can affect the results. If we put a bracket to what data we analyze, then we do not have the whole picture.

If we do not put a bracket of limitation to what we evaluate, then we are analyzing infinity and we will not arrive at an answer. We are talking about a great and expansive risk network that trumps common comprehension.

I imagine that many risk drivers actually lie so far outside the boundaries of what we tend to consider that it is futile to predict a potential outcome.

Tracing the cause of a black swan event that has already happened can lead us to the most seemingly insignificant occurrence.

It is easy to posit real life examples of how some insignificant events result in a big events, spawning other effects in never ending fashion. Some of you might even trace a problem to the time when a person was born, arguing that if he had not come into being, things would have turned out differently.

I tell you, the iterations are endless. The good thing is, it is an excellent mental exercise.

Source: Frago, R. (2015).Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and Opportunities: A Project Controls Perspective. ISBN 978-0-9947608-0-7 (Canada). Section 1.7

Rufran C. Frago – Author (19-Oct-16)

Related sites:

Related articles authored by Rufran Frago.

  1. Risk Relativity
  2. Phantom Schedules
  3. Man is the Center of the Risk Universe
  4. Project Schedule Baseline Top 10 Prerequisites
  5. Setting Critical Path
  6. Schedule Critical path
  7. Primer to Good Schedule Integration
  8. Project Schedule: P50, Anyone?
  9. Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 1
  10. Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 2
  11. 4D Scheduling Part 1: What is it about?
  12. 4D Scheduling Part 2
  13. 4D Scheduling Part 3
  14. Mega-Projects Schedule Management and Integration
  15. Scaffolding Hours: What are they? Part 1
  16. Scaffolding Hours: What are they? Part 2
  17. Your World, Our Risk Universe
  18. Rufran Frago in the Global Risk Community Site
Posted in Analysis, Baseline Management, Black Swans, Business, Canadian Politics, Causes and effects, Construction Management, Critical Path, Critical Path Management, Data Assessment, Data Maturity, Decision Making, Deterministic Schedule, E-Touch Up, Economics, Information Maturity, Integrated Schedule, Integration, Issues and Problems, Managing Assumptions, Managing Constraints, Monitoring, Oil Future, Opportunities, Opportunity, Planning and Scheduling, Program Management, Program Schedule, Progress Measurement, Project Management, Reporting, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk Relativity, Risk Universe, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Threats, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Risk Relativity

For a thief, a good security system is a threat. To a security guard, that same system is an opportunity to lessen the risk of robbery and to increase the chance of catching the thieves.

A person’s perspective depends on which side of the fence he is sitting on. With that in mind, a risk can be a threat or an opportunity. Your business sees a threat and your competitor sees an opportunity. It is as simple as that.

Each individual player within the risk universe will see things a bit differently compared to the next person, with some people interpreting things in exactly the opposite fashion. In each case, the person can see only one attribute.

The simplistic objective point of view is that risk is either a threat or an opportunity, depending on the observer’s orientation to the goal.

If one sits on his most important goal and look at the potential risk, the resultant or prevailing consequence describes whether it is a threat or an opportunity.

Anyone who contemplate risk should consider that threats also bring with it opportunities and opportunities also brings threats.

These are underlining characteristics that all risk practitioners have to remind themselves always. Have you ever heard the saying, “every cloud has a silver lining”?

We can readily conclude that this tested adage found to be true for many centuries is actually a risk-based management concept.

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Figure 1 – Risk Universe

Now, if we could take an even more macroscopic view of the risk universe as an independent observer, we would be able to see risk from more than one perspective and gain a level of understanding that most of us never thought possible before – that risk is both a threat and an opportunity.

We can see both possibilities existing simultaneously. When we have no stake in the game¸ we can relate to both parties’ positions.

Risk is not absolute, but relative.

If one thinks about it a little deeper, the concept of risk becomes more evident. The risks of threat and opportunity are two sides of the same event. Obviously, events and objectives go hand in hand, as your objectives will depend on how you interpret events.

Using the set theory and imagining risk using a Venn diagram, one might imagine the concept of uncertainty as a big system where risk resides.

Given a singular risk that revolves around a given objective, considering a vast system called uncertainty, the probability of that risk is impossible to measure.

We can calculate the probability of an identified and specific risk because we can appreciate the uncertainty boundary (or field) where the risk lies.

The finite boundary (a small piece of the whole uncertainty system) relevant to the objective is the only useful element in appreciating that risk, a piece of mathematical uncertainty that has practical use. It is the kind of uncertainty with more reliable probabilistic basis.

We’ve all heard that beauty is in the eye of the beholder, meaning that the perception of beauty is subjective. Similarly, perception of risk is subjective because it is relative. It depends on how one interprets a situation. Duality in this sense points to two kinds of perceptions rather than two intrinsic attributes in one.

figure148

Many writers in the last few centuries have touched on the concepts of relativity and subjectivity when talking about how a person sees their surroundings.

Below, are some phrases about this, but it is up to you to make the comparison between these poetic relationships and people’s perceptions of risk. I thought it would be fun to inject risk’s syllogism and indirect association within some memorable quotes.

In 1588, the English dramatist John Lyly, in his Euphues and His England, wrote: “…as neere is Fancie to Beautie [RISK], as the pricke to the Rose, as the stalke to the rynde, as the earth to the roote.”

Shakespeare expressed a similar sentiment in Love’s Labours Lost, 1598. “Good Lord Boyet, my beauty [RISK], though but mean, / Needs not the painted flourish of your praise: / Beauty [RISK] is bought by judgment of the eye, / Not utter’d by base sale of chapmen’s tongues.”

Benjamin Franklin, in Poor Richard’s Almanack, 1741, wrote, “Beauty [RISK], like supreme dominion is but supported by opinion.”

David Hume’s Essays, Moral and Political, 1742, includes the statement that “Beauty [RISK] in things exists merely in the mind which contemplates them.”

The person who is widely credited with coining the saying in its current form is Margaret Wolfe Hungerford (née Hamilton), who wrote many books, often under the pseudonym of ‘The Duchess’.

In Molly Bawn (1878), readers will find the following line: “Beauty [RISK] is in the eye of the beholder (The Phrase Finder, 2015).”

Oftentimes, the discussion on subjects such as risk has a tendency to turn into something more esoteric.

When that happens, as a Risk Manager, we should appreciate the brilliance of some people’s individual premises, suppositions, commentaries, and conclusions, for they can add value and substance to what we already know.

Source: Frago, R. (2015). Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and Opportunities: A Project Controls Perspective. ISBN 978-0-9947608-0-7 (Canada).Section 1.2

Rufran C. Frago – Author (14-Oct-16)

Related sites:

Related articles authored by Rufran Frago:

  1. Phantom Schedules
  2. Man is the Center of the Risk Universe
  3. Project Schedule Baseline Top 10 Prerequisites
  4. Setting Critical Path
  5. Primer to Good Schedule Integration
  6. Project Schedule: P50, Anyone?
  7. Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 1
  8. Mega-Projects Schedule Management and Integration
  9. Scaffolding Hours: What are they? Part 1
  10. Your World, Our Risk Universe
Posted in Analysis, Business, Causes and effects, Construction Management, Critical Path, Critical Path Management, Data Assessment, Data Maturity, Decision Making, Deterministic Schedule, E-Touch Up, Economics, Execution Strategy, Information Maturity, Integrated Schedule, Integration, Issues and Problems, Managing Assumptions, Managing Constraints, Monitoring, Opportunity, Planning and Scheduling, Program Management, Program Schedule, Project Management, Quality Management, Reporting, risk, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk Relativity, Risk Universe, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Threats, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Risk-based Planning and Scheduling Slides (SAIT Presentation)

Posted in Analysis, Baseline Management, Business, Causes and effects, Construction Management, Critical Path, Critical Path Management, Data Assessment, Data Maturity, Decision Making, Deterministic Schedule, E-Touch Up, E-Touch Up Products, Information Maturity, Integrated Schedule, Integration, Issues and Problems, Managing Constraints, Opportunities, Planning and Scheduling, Primavera Administration, Program Management, Program Schedule, Progress Measurement, Project Management, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Schedule Baseline, Threats | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Eva’s Flowery Power Leggings : Sunflowers plus one

092516-01100201-leggings-evas-flowery-power1An E-Touch Up Stylish, durable, and a hot fashion staple. These polyester/spandex leggings are made of a comfortable microfiber yarn, and they’ll never lose their stretch.

CAD 65.99

Eva’s Flowery Power is a special brand attuned with nature to send your message. The singular pink flower in the midst of all the sunflowers symbolizes your uniqueness as an individual. You are beautiful… you are a child of the universe!

You have the right to be here! Give this special gift to someone you love…

Our Leggings

• Fabric is 82% polyester, 18% spandex
• Four-way stretch
• Elastic waistband
• Imported fabric that’s cut, sewn, and printed in California

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Posted in Business, E-Touch Up, E-Touch Up Products, Eva Flowery Power Leggings, Online Store, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment