Tag Archives: investment

Black Swans

Black swan events are so fascinating that they are a common source of discussion in many risk management forums. The variety of perspectives coming from all directions never ceases to amaze.

To a risk manager, ‘black swan’ phenomena are highly unlikely events that have massive impacts on a business or society on the rare occasions they occur. It means that the event is unexpected, but is of huge consequence (Ferguson, 2014). There is no scientific way at present to predict black swan events reasonably and acceptably.
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Posted in Analysis, Baseline Management, Black Swans, Business, Canadian Politics, Causes and effects, Construction Management, Critical Path, Critical Path Management, Data Assessment, Data Maturity, Decision Making, Deterministic Schedule, E-Touch Up, Economics, Information Maturity, Integrated Schedule, Integration, Issues and Problems, Managing Assumptions, Managing Constraints, Monitoring, Oil Future, Opportunities, Opportunity, Planning and Scheduling, Program Management, Program Schedule, Progress Measurement, Project Management, Reporting, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk Relativity, Risk Universe, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Threats, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Risk Relativity

A person’s perspective depends on which side of the fence they are sitting on. With that in mind, a risk can be a threat or an opportunity. Your business sees a threat and your competitor sees an opportunity. It is as simple as that.

Each individual player within the risk universe will see things a bit differently compared to the next person, with some people interpreting things in exactly the opposite fashion. In each case, the person can see only one attribute.

The simplistic objective point of view is that risk is either a threat or an opportunity, depending on the observer’s orientation to the goal. Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Business, Causes and effects, Construction Management, Critical Path, Critical Path Management, Data Assessment, Data Maturity, Decision Making, Deterministic Schedule, E-Touch Up, Economics, Execution Strategy, Information Maturity, Integrated Schedule, Integration, Issues and Problems, Managing Assumptions, Managing Constraints, Monitoring, Opportunity, Planning and Scheduling, Program Management, Program Schedule, Project Management, Quality Management, Reporting, risk, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk Relativity, Risk Universe, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Threats, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Risk-based Management: Data Maturity, Integration, Risk and Execution

The overall execution plan loses substance when important pieces are missing. It can also lose its essence when many smaller project elements are absent, through their cumulative effect.

Data maturity is a project attribute project managers have to deal with in some intelligent way. They seek to formulate a way to address missing and incomplete information and to strike a balance somehow. It is very risky trying to integrate a project with missing or incomplete work scope. Filling in an information space with assumed fill-in data is a risky trade-off.

Quality is frequently a victim of time. Think about it. Try doing anything quicker than normal. What will happen to the quality of any endeavor compared to one given enough time? Right you are! We will see resources skipping steps, doing shortcuts, circumventing rules, violating regulations, lying, cheating, sugarcoating, and many others. The adverse consequences, to name a few includes reworks, higher safety incidents, project suspension, strikes, disputes, litigation, lay-offs, and bunches of other bad news. All these will potentially happen because quality has deteriorated. Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Business, Construction Management, Data Assessment, Data Maturity, Economics, Execution Strategy, Information Maturity, Integration, Planning and Scheduling, Project Management, Quality Management, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Threats | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Conducting Project Analysis: Using PIRCAD Approach Part 1

Faced with a question on how one would analyze a problematic situation on the spot without going to any existing analytic templates and guidelines, the PIRCAD approach was born. The acronym is odd sounding but easy to remember. It simply … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Business, Causes and effects, Construction Management, Economics, Issues and Problems, Monitoring, Opportunities, Planning and Scheduling, Project Management, Reporting, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk-based Management, Rufran's Blogs, Threats, Type of Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Oil Price, Recession: Causes, Issues and Risks

As one of many whose bread and butter is in the oil and gas industry, the price of oil further plunging to around $41.35 dollars a barrel conjures a worrisome landscape. Today’s decline (August 14, 2015) is almost a full … Continue reading

Posted in Business, Causes and effects, Economics, Issues and Problems, Oil Future, Oil Marketing, Project Management, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk-based Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment