Tag Archives: quantitative analysis

Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and Opportunities: A Project Controls Perspective

Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and Opportunities: A Project Controls Perspective Continue reading

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Posted in Analysis, Baseline Management, Black Swans, Book, Business, Causes and effects, Construction Management, Data Assessment, E-Touch Up, E-Touch Up Products, Opportunities, Opportunity, Project Management, Publication, Risk Relativity, Risk Universe, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Schedule Baseline, Threats | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Planning, Scheduling, and Safety

There are 150,000 collisions, 350 traffic deaths, and 20,000 injuries every year in Alberta, Canada (AMA, 2011).

You might be living somewhere in another place or country and you have different numbers. Your statistics might be worse or better.

The thing is, behind this statistics are faces of families and friends, the communities, and workplaces. They are all negatively affected and there is an urgent need to understand and do something.
If one thinks about it long enough, he will realize that the solution to this harmful and deadly consequence is risk-based management. Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Black Swans, Causes and effects, Data Assessment, Data Maturity, Issues and Problems, Managing Constraints, Monitoring, Planning and Scheduling, Program Schedule, risk, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk Relativity, Risk Universe, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Threats, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Risk Relativity

A person’s perspective depends on which side of the fence they are sitting on. With that in mind, a risk can be a threat or an opportunity. Your business sees a threat and your competitor sees an opportunity. It is as simple as that.

Each individual player within the risk universe will see things a bit differently compared to the next person, with some people interpreting things in exactly the opposite fashion. In each case, the person can see only one attribute.

The simplistic objective point of view is that risk is either a threat or an opportunity, depending on the observer’s orientation to the goal. Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Business, Causes and effects, Construction Management, Critical Path, Critical Path Management, Data Assessment, Data Maturity, Decision Making, Deterministic Schedule, E-Touch Up, Economics, Execution Strategy, Information Maturity, Integrated Schedule, Integration, Issues and Problems, Managing Assumptions, Managing Constraints, Monitoring, Opportunity, Planning and Scheduling, Program Management, Program Schedule, Project Management, Quality Management, Reporting, risk, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk Relativity, Risk Universe, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Threats, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Egad! It is the Most Likely Schedule!

One has to remember that a schedule is a time estimate. It is not the exact actual time value at the time. Experienced professionals try to provide a plausible estimate. Nobody really knows what would be the definitive value.

ML date (or most likely duration) is not the same as expected date (or expected duration). It is but a component of the expected value. With the three point estimates (Triangular or Beta) available, one can calculate the expected duration of an activity, a group of activity, and the whole project’s duration.

It is one of the questions asked more often in risk-based planning and scheduling. Project directors, managers, planners, and schedulers have to know what this term means.

Each time a scheduler tries to explain the concept, he easily gets lost in his own circumlocution. It might be his indirectness compounded by the fact that this particular term shares common but blurred boundaries with some other project and risk management terms.

In view of such difficulties, let us put their words and thoughts on paper so that project practitioners can better understand. Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Baseline Management, Business, Construction Management, Critical Path, Data Assessment, Decision Making, Deterministic Schedule, Economics, Integrated Schedule, Most Likely Schedule, Planning and Scheduling, Program Management, Program Schedule, Project Management, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk Universe, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Man is the Center of the Risk Universe

Doing nothing is also a decision. It is a decision that sits on your head. “Status quo” is also a decision. No escaping around it! Continue reading

Posted in Business, Causes and effects, Construction Management, Data Assessment, Decision Making, Issues and Problems, Opportunities, Planning and Scheduling, Program Management, Project Management, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk Universe, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Threats, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Project Schedule Baseline Top Ten Prerequisites

Baseline prerequisites:
1. The baseline schedule shall represent the most likely schedule

The baseline schedule is the most-likely schedule. It does not have built-in float, buffer duration, or/and dummy activities. It is neither optimistic nor pessimistic (tight or lax).

Reminder:

It has full complement of qualified resources, with no embedded risk or any built-in schedule contingency.

2. An official project BL Schedule shall be a result of Interactive Planning

All baselines set from Gate 2 onward shall be the result of an interactive planning session.

3. Schedule scope shall equal plan scope

The plan scope shall be the same scope reflected in the baseline schedule that follows. Planned scope and the scheduled scope must be in alignment. A schedule cannot have more than the scope in the plan. Otherwise, the project faces a problem (Frago, Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 1, 2015).

Read the whole article for complete list! Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Baseline Management, Business, Causes and effects, Construction Management, Data Assessment, Data Maturity, earned value, Execution Strategy, Information Maturity, Integrated Schedule, Integration, Issues and Problems, Managing Assumptions, Planning and Scheduling, Primavera Administration, Program Management, Program Schedule, Progress Measurement, Project Management, Quality Management, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Schedule Baseline, Threats, Tools, Type of Analysis, Uncategorized, Variance Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Effects of Constraints to Critical Path

Identifying and validating project constraints affecting the schedule is an important part of monitoring and control. Constraints for the most part are project assumptions.

Treat them with caution and respect.

“Once started, the project is actually operating under three big traditional major constraints* of cost, time, and scope (*note that PMBOK had recently came up with six constraints).

Constraints imposed on activities are multiple limitations that will most likely further make it challenging and difficult to manage time.”

The critical path ultimately dictates the duration of the project. For this reason, a planning and scheduling person has to understand how constraints affect the schedule.
Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Business, Construction Management, Critical Path, Critical Path Management, Data Assessment, Data Maturity, Information Maturity, Integrated Schedule, Issues and Problems, Longest Path, Managing Assumptions, Managing Constraints, Monitoring, Planning and Scheduling, Primavera Administration, Program Management, Program Schedule, Project Management, Quality Management, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment