Tag Archives: time and risk

Egad! It is the Most Likely Schedule!

One has to remember that a schedule is a time estimate. It is not the exact actual time value at the time. Experienced professionals try to provide a plausible estimate. Nobody really knows what would be the definitive value.

ML date (or most likely duration) is not the same as expected date (or expected duration). It is but a component of the expected value. With the three point estimates (Triangular or Beta) available, one can calculate the expected duration of an activity, a group of activity, and the whole project’s duration.

It is one of the questions asked more often in risk-based planning and scheduling. Project directors, managers, planners, and schedulers have to know what this term means.

Each time a scheduler tries to explain the concept, he easily gets lost in his own circumlocution. It might be his indirectness compounded by the fact that this particular term shares common but blurred boundaries with some other project and risk management terms.

In view of such difficulties, let us put their words and thoughts on paper so that project practitioners can better understand. Continue reading

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Posted in Analysis, Baseline Management, Business, Construction Management, Critical Path, Data Assessment, Decision Making, Deterministic Schedule, Economics, Integrated Schedule, Most Likely Schedule, Planning and Scheduling, Program Management, Program Schedule, Project Management, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk Universe, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Risky Decision: Choosing Daycare

It is always better to learn from the experience of others than to experience the pain yourself. Forewarned is forearmed.

As a Risk-based Management practitioner, what more, a grandfather, I would like to remind all Moms and Dads to be acutely aware of all risk indicators before letting others take care of their precious ones. Be cognizant of warning signs that threatens the safety of your child.

Do not focus too much on your own personal objectives, your targets, or your timelines to accomplish something.

Never equate the risk (threat) to the convenience and freedom daycare brings to your life.

Do not rush into making any decision affecting your child. Think deeply and re-think your priority list!

Best Time in Life

The best time in life is being a Mom and a Dad to your kids in their formative years. Nothing beats that.

It is the best thing in the world. It is way beyond work/job, career development, MBA, Doctorate, Diploma, Certificate, and other accolades. Family is first.
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Posted in Analysis, Business, Causes and effects, Childcare, Data Assessment, Day Home, Daycare, Decision Making, Issues and Problems, Managing Assumptions, Monitoring, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk Universe, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Threats, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Man is the Center of the Risk Universe

Doing nothing is also a decision. It is a decision that sits on your head. “Status quo” is also a decision. No escaping around it! Continue reading

Posted in Business, Causes and effects, Construction Management, Data Assessment, Decision Making, Issues and Problems, Opportunities, Planning and Scheduling, Program Management, Project Management, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk Universe, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Threats, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Ten Cardinal Rules to Good Schedule BL Management

When client and contractor start throwing accusations against each other surrounding schedule baseline, one can easily conclude that a problem or issue is brewing. It can turn into big risks (Frago, Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 1, 2015). Resolving the contentions between opposing parties can take long and potentially, can end in disaster.

To prevent such occurrence, the project must start with the right foot forward. The project manager, all his planners, and schedulers, including his contract administrators must have a solid understanding on how the project intends to manage schedule baselines.

If baseline management is not part of the plan, the project is trekking on dangerous territory. Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Baseline Management, Business, Causes and effects, Construction Management, Integrated Schedule, Issues and Problems, Planning and Scheduling, Primavera Administration, Program Management, Program Schedule, Progress Measurement, Project Management, Risk Assessment and Treatment, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Schedule Baseline, Threats, Uncategorized, Variance Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

OSIDABULYU (OCW)

Tulad ng karaniwang sinasabi-sabi ng mga kwento sa mga pahayagan at iba pang babasahin, dalawa ang mukha ng tagumpay at maraming mukha ang buhay. Ang ating Dakilang Lumikha lang ang tunay nakaaalam nang tiyak na kahihinatnan ng bawat isa.

Ang mga kwento at karikatura sa pahinang ito ay halaw sa aking sariling karanasan at karanasan ng iba pang Osidabulyung tulad ko. Ang iba ay galing sa mga kuwento na narinig nating lahat, galing sa ibat-ibang sanggunian. Ang mga pangalan, lugal at siwasyon ay iniba upang mapangalagaan ang kanilang pribadong buhay. Dahil dito, ang mga karakter at lugal na ginamit ay naging isang kathang-isip lamang o piksyon.

Sana’y makapagdulot ito sa mga mahal kong mambabasa ng galak, paglilimi at mahalagang aral.

Sumasaludo ako sa lahat ng aking mga kasamahang Osidabulyu. Dapat bigyan ng maganda at kumpletong proteksyon ng pamahalaan ang lahat ng manggagawa sa ibang bansa.

Mabuhay ang mga Osi! Maraming salamat sa inyong lahat!

Rufran C. Frago
May-akda
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Posted in OFW, Overseas Contract Workers, Overseas Foreign Workers, Pinoy OCWs, Risk Assessment and Treatment, Risk of Working Overseas, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Setting the Critical Path

In the big situation, a man’s blind belief usually ends in disaster. Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Business, Causes and effects, Construction Management, Critical Path, Critical Path Management, Data Assessment, Execution Strategy, Integrated Schedule, Integration, Longest Path, Opportunities, P6 Issues, Planning and Scheduling, Program Management, Program Schedule, Project Management, Quality Management, Reporting, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Tools, Uncategorized, Variance Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Schedule Critical Path

Pencil pushers and computer jockeys are people who do not know what is going on around them, but moved only by the task to transfer listed data into the system.

Does this mean that the term critical path is but a salesperson word? Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Business, Causes and effects, Critical Path, Critical Path Management, Data Assessment, Execution Strategy, Integrated Schedule, Integration, Issues and Problems, Longest Path, P6 Issues, Planning and Scheduling, Primavera Administration, Program Schedule, Risk-based Management, rufran frago, Rufran's Blogs, Threats, Type of Analysis, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment